The study is part of a harmonised European Union programme of observations of
business trends and monitoring users and is representative of the population of 16 and
more years.
The object of the study are persons 16 years and over, the method of selection-casual
nesting and proportional to the population in the areas, including rural/urban population (153 nests with
8 persons in the nest). The method of sampling is an interview-face to face. The questionnaire contains
standardized questions, connected with the financial situation of households, the total
economic situation in the country, inflation, unemployment, savings intentions for
perform basic costs for articles with long-term use, and purchase of a home or
car. The offered variants of answer created the opportunity for their prioritisation of
optimistic in neutral to pessimistic. The balance of opinion is obtained as the difference
between the relative shares of positive and relative shares of negative posts with
the following feature: highly positive and highly negative opinion is given a coefficient of 1, and
more moderate positive and a more moderate negative posts-coefficient 0.5.
With the results of observations are intended to capture the direction of amendment of the
variables, including in "the level of trust of consumers, which, in turn, enables
to explore trends in the evolution of public opinion on the basic economic
processes and phenomena.
The indicator of consumer confidence is the average arithmetic of the balance sheets of
expectations for development over the next 12 months: the financial situation of the
households, the overall economic situation in the country, the savings of households and
unemployment, as the last balance sheet shall be reversed.

In October 2011, the overall index of consumer confidence declined by 3.0 percentage points
in relation to the level of three months. Decreases due to reduced confidence
as the population in the cities and in the villages-respectively by 3.5 and 1.7 percentage points. As
General monitoring in October shows increasing pessimism in the evaluations and expectations of
users compared with July.
Opinions about the development of the overall economic situation in the country over the past
twelve months, as well as their expectations for the next twelve months  are more
adverse to the previous observation, in which BSI
decreased respectively by 1.7 and 2.7 percentage points.
Consumers living in cities, considered that the financial situation of their
households is currently relatively better compared with three months earlier, while among the
the population in the villages when more reserved (fig. 4). The expectations for the next twelve
months, however, the overall pessimism.
More adverse compared with July, and guest users for climate
consumer prices over the past twelve months (the balancing item rises with 3.1
points) (fig. . Inflation expectations are kept, and for the next twelve months (fig. 6).
In terms of unemployment in the country over the next twelve months, pessimism
also increases. Expectations are shifting towards more negative reviewers as the balance
indicator increases with 7.5 points.
Most poll reported a deterioration (1.1 points) in the overall assessment to make cost
for the purchase of objects for long lasting use
1
in the current situation. Users
continue to register its negative attitude and in respect of costs
home improvement, purchase or construction of housing and the purchase of a car in
the next twelve months.

Consumer confidence
Consumer confidence is an economic indicator that measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the general State of the economy and their personal financial situation. Safe feel people about the stability of their incomes determines their consumption activities and therefore serves as one of the key indicators in the general shape of the economy. In essence, if consumer confidence is higher, consumers are making more purchases, boosting the economic expansion. On the other hand, if confidence is lower, consumers tend to save more than they spend, which causes contractions in the economy. A trend of several months resulting in a decrease in the continued consumer confidence suggests that in the current state of the economy most consumers have a negative view about the ability to find and keep good jobs.

Use

Investors, producers, retailers, banks and Government agencies use various assessments of consumer confidence in planning for their actions. The ability to predict big changes in consumer confidence allows companies to measure the willingness of consumers to make new expenditures. As a result, companies can adjust their operations and the Government can prepare their fiscal policies. If confidence is falling and it is expected that consumers reduced their spending, consequently most of the producers will tend to reduce their production volumes.
For example, if the producers anticipated that consumers reduced their purchases to the retail, especially for products expensive and durable, they will reduce their inventories in advance and can delay the investment in new projects and facilities. Similarly, if banks expect that consumers will decrease your expenses, they will be prepared for the reduction of their lending activities, such as mortgage applications and the use of credit cards. Builders will adapt to likely decrease in the volume of housing construction, and the Government is going to be ready for a reduction of income taxes.
On the other hand, if consumer confidence is improving, people expect to increase their spending on goods and services. As a result, producers can increase production and inventories. Large employers can increase the levels of recruitment. Builders can prepare for higher rates in the construction of houses. Banks can plan an increase in demand for its products of credit and the Government can expect an improvement in tax revenue by increasing consumer spending.

United States

There are several indicators that try to track and measure the confidence of consumers in the United States.

The consumer confidence index
The consumer confidence index (CCI) is a monthly publication produced by The Conference Board, a business group non-profit since 1967. The ICC is designed to evaluate the confidence in general, relative financial health and the purchasing power of the average consumer in the United States. The Conference Board monthly broadcasts three main bulletins: the index of consumer confidence, the index of the current situation, and the expectations index.

Methodology of the ICC
The ICC is based on data from a monthly survey of 5,000 households in the United States. The data are calculated for the United States as a whole and for each of the nine regions of the country voter registration. The survey consists of five questions on the following topics:

• The current conditions of your business.
  
• The conditions of your business for the next six months.
  
• The current conditions of their employment.
  
• The conditions of his employment for the next six months.
  
• Total family income for the next six months.
  

Then all surveys are collected, and the positive responses to each question are divided by the total sum of positive and negative responses. The resulting relative value is used as an index value and compares with each monthly value corresponding to the year 1985. That year he was chosen as reference year, since it was not either a maximum or minimum in the economic cycle. The values of the index of the five questions are averaged together to produce the ICC. The average of the values of questions 1 and 3 are the index of the current situation, and the average number of questions 2, 4 and 5 form the expectations index.

index of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan
The consumer sentiment index (MCSI) is a monthly publication produced by the University of Michigan. The MCSI is designed to measure the attitudes of consumers towards the business climate in general, the State of personal finances and spending of consumers. The University of Michigan reported three newsletters relating each month: the (ICS or MCSI) consumer sentiment index, index of current economic conditions (ICC), and the index of consumer expectations (ICE). The most recent data for ICS have been published by Reuters, the index of consumer expectations is an official component of the index of leading economic indicators of United States.
[edit]Methodology of the MCSI
The index of consumer sentiment (ICS) is based on the monthly telephone survey of household data from the United States. The index is the sum total of five questions on the following topics:
Personal financial situation now and a year ago.
The personal economic situation within a year.
The general financial condition of your company for the next twelve months.
Overall, the financial situation of your company for the next five years.
The current attitude toward the purchase of essential household items.
The ICS is calculated from the scores relating to each of the five index questions: the percentage of favourable responses less percentage of unfavourable responses, by 100. Each relative score is rounded to the nearest whole number. The five relative scores are added together and the sum is divided by 6,7558 (the 1966 base period) and 2 are added to the result (a constant to correct changes in the design of the sample of the 1950s). The ICC is calculated by dividing the sum rounded "relative scores" of questions one and five by 2,6424, and by adding 2. ICE is calculated by dividing the sum rounded "relative scores" of inquiries, two, three and four by 4,1134 and by adding 2.3
[edit]Index of comfort of the consumer of the ABC News-Washington
The index of comfort of the consumer of the ABC News-Washington represents a moving average based on telephone interviews 1,000 adults in all United States monthly. The survey began in December 1985. The index is based on ratings of the economy, the climate for buying consumer and personal finance.
[edit]The consumer comfort index methodology
The consumer comfort index performs three questions about the following topics:
The national economy, ("do as the situation of the country's economy can be described in these days: excellent, good, not so good or poor?")
About personal finances ("do describe the State of their personal finances these days as excellent, good, not so good, or evil?")
The climate to buy ("taking into account the cost of things today and your personal finances, would say that now is a great time, a good time, a time not so good, or a bad time to buy the things they want and need?")
The index is obtained by subtracting the negative response to each question with a positive response. The three resulting numbers are added and divided by three. The rate may vary from 100 (each is positive on all three measures) to - 100 (negative on all three measures).

Average consumer confidence index


Average consumer confidence index
The average consumer confidence index (CCAI) is a monthly aggregation of data from three of the main national surveys on consumer confidence. Represents average consumer confidence index conducted by the Conference Board, the confidence index of the University of Michigan consumer and the ABC News consumer comfort index rescaling. CCAI is produced and published by StateOfEconomy.com.

Methodology of the CCIC
The CCAI takes into account the historical values of the three indices from January 2002. 0 Average consumer confidence value represents the average value of the weighted average of the three indices. The value of +/-100 the confidence of the consumer average represents one standard deviation from the mean value. The value of +/-200 average consumer confidence represents two standard deviations from the average value and so success.

Canada

The index of confidence of the consumer of Canada has been conducting since 1980. This built from responses to four questions of attitude that represent a random sample of Canadian households. Respondents are asked to give their opinion about the situation of his family in financial terms in the present and future, and the prospects for employment in the short term. You are also asked to assess whether now is a good or a bad time to make a substantial, such as a House, a car or other expensive goods cost.
India

The importance of a confidence index for a country such as the India consumers is evidenced by the fact that consumer spending represents more than 60% of the GDP of the India. The index of confidence of the consumer of the CNBC TV18-Boston Analytics is derived from a monthly survey of 10,000 respondents directed through fifteen cities in the India; Delhi, Mumbai, Calcutta, Chennai, Hyderabad, Bangalore, Ahmedabad, Chandigarh, Nagpur, Kochi, Jaipur, Lucknow, Bhubaneshwar, Patna and Visakhapatnam through personal interviews. The sample has an objective capture the major contributors of the personal consumption GDP component.

United Kingdom

The barometer of consumer confidence has been operating under the same format across Europe since the beginning of the 1970s. GfK has directed the barometer in the United Kingdom since June 1995. The survey is conducted on a monthly basis, on behalf of the European Commission, which sponsors the same research in countries members of the European Union. The main objective of this research is to monitor the public's confidence in the British economy in general. Each month, the survey collects changes in personal finances, the economic situation in general, inflation, unemployment, the current to buy climate, consumer spending and your savings. Quarterly surveys about purchases of automobiles or real estate and home improvements. The results of the barometer can be obtained by a subscription of 6 months or a year, ranging from May to April.

Spain

The Spanish ICC is produced since 2004. Design the Instituto de crédito Oficial (ICO) based its calculation on the methodology of Michigan. The Centre for sociological investigations (CIS), who is in charge of its publication it is from November 2011.
The ICC is made from a monthly opinion survey with telephone application of questionnaire standardized to a representative sample of the population residing in Spain of 1000 individuals over the age of 16. The sampling procedure is multistage, with selection of primary sampling units (municipalities) of random proportional to each one of the Spanish provinces and secondary units (households) of numbers randomly phone and latest units (individuals) to cross-sex and age quotas.
ICC-CIS publishes on day 3 of each month or the first working day following if festive or weekend.
[edit]Rest of the world

There has not been any systematic attempt to track and measure consumer confidence in the world. The Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Index measures the confidence, major concerns and spending habits of online consumers in 54 countries on the basis of an annual average. Index is developed based on the confidence of consumers in the labour market, the State of their personal finances and the willingness to spend. It is heard by the company Nielsen (Nielsen Customized Research). In April 2008 the survey included responses from 28.153 users online.

Consumer confidence index



The U.S. consumer confidence index, (the consumer confidence index CCI) measures the propensity of private households in the United States. It is published by the Independent Research Institute, "The Conference Board" based in New York. The index is in competition with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, the consumer confidence index from Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan.

Concept

The U.S. consumer confidence index (CCI) is as an early indicator of economic development in the United States. 5000 Representative selected consumers about their consumption plans, in particular the propensity to buy durable consumer goods, are asked to calculate. The monthly report, the consumer confidence survey, measures the confidence, households in the performance of the American economy have. Consumer confidence is considered the Central indicator for consumer spending, which make up two-thirds of US economic output. The market research company that carries out the survey for the Conference Board, shipped nationwide 5000 questionnaires, of which about 3500 will be answered.
The survey consists of five questions on the following topics:
Assessment of the current economic development in the region of the respondent
Prospects for economic development in six months
Current availability of jobs in the region of the respondent
Availability of jobs in six months
Family income for the next six months
The participants of the survey are asked every question "positive", "negative" or "neutral" answer. The Conference Board calculated two sub-indices, which together result in the overall index from all data: the present situation index for the assessment of the current situation and the expectations index, which includes the assessment of future expectations. Opinions about the current behavior have accounted for up to 40 percent of the overall index, expectations about future behavior accounted for up to 60 percent. The preliminary results from the survey of consumer confidence are on the last Tuesday of the month at 10: 00 EST (16: 00 CET) published.

Evaluation 

The strengths of the U.S. consumer confidence index (CCI) is the publication of data for the current month. Consumer confidence is a leading indicator of economic cycles. The published information provide information on the current situation and future expectations of the consumers.
Among the weaknesses of the index, that consumers have not the necessary information in advance to make a correct assessment of income such as employment growth. The monthly report contains information about planned spending, but not necessarily be made.
In a period of prolonged economic growth, the purchasing intentions despite declining unemployment can be removed since the brisk demand was already satisfied. However, the purchase projects can increase with rising inflation in the short term, because consumers quickly implement these in anticipation of rising prices, to avoid the price increase.
The financial markets are sensitive to unexpected changes in the index, it is perceived as an early indicator for the economic development as well as rising inflation. CCI and purchasing manager index include such as the case-Shiller index, the FHFA House Price Index or the price of oil to the Group of indicators, development of which clearly affect the stock indices.
In addition to the CCI there are two consumer climate indices in the United States: University of Michigan consumer sentiment index from Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan, as well as the ABC News consumer comfort index of the Washington Post. While focusing on the labour market situation the question at the Conference Board, the financial situation of households at the Center is the other indexes. Overall, the Conference Board data form a more stable relationship with the economic data as the indexes of the University of Michigan and the Washington Post. The CCI is the most acclaimed consumer confidence index in the media, businessmen and consumers in the United States.

History
Historical overview
The U.S. consumer confidence index (CCI) was with a base value of 100 points for the first time by the market research Institute "The Conference Board" published in 1985 and expected back until December 1966. The long-term average of the time series of the CCI from 1966 to 2007 is 98.7 index points. 53.9 Points average from 2008 to 2011. The average of the entire time series from 1966 until 2011 is 94.5 points. According to the Conference Board, the border, where the U.S. economy is in a phase of expansion is located at 90 points. The average of consumer confidence in the stable economic development phases is 110 points.
In January and May 2000, the CCI achieved an all time high with 144,7 points. In the course of the financial crisis from 2007 deteriorated the situation in the labour market of the United States. Unemployment grew and the real incomes of workers went back. Accordingly, consumer confidence sank in February 2009 at an all time low of 25.3 points. The two sub-indices to the current situation and expectations experienced a similar development.
The present situation index marked in July 2000 with 186,8 points a record level. Until December 2009, he fell to a low of 20.2 points. Deeper, it was only during the recession from 1980 to 1982. In December 1982, the layer index marked an all-time low with 15.9 points. The expectations index rose in January 2000 to a peak of 119.1 points. Thus, it was only a few points below its all-time high of May 1983 with 124.3 points. Until February 2009, the expectations index at an all time low of 27.3 points dropped.
In February 2011, there were changes in the market research firm, and in the methodology. The Nielsen company took over the monthly survey for the Conference Board by Taylor Nelson Sofres (TNS). States Census Bureau was introduced by the United in a random sample, a subsequent stratification by means of weighting for gender, income, geography and age, as well as the X-12-ARIMA seasonal cleanup procedures. The change in methodology has led to a higher consumer confidence as originally published. The new index showed 57.8 points for November, 2010 (previously 54.3 points), 63.4 points for December, 2010 (previously 53.3 points) and 65.6 points for January, 2011 (previously 60.6 points). In February 2011, a value was calculated by 72.0 points.
In October 2011, was the consumer confidence index to 40.9 points and was the third month in a row below the level of 50 points after August (45.2 points) and September (46.4 points). Consumer confidence was therefore on a level that it had most recently during the recession in 2008 and 2009.



CCI versus U.S. economic data 
Consumer confidence in the United States closely correlates with unemployment, inflation, and the actual income situation. There is a strong relationship with the consumer behaviour. The sizes match but not necessarily.
Hedonistic, inflation and economic growth is calculated in the United States since 1996. It attempts to quantify the increases in the quality of products. This leads to estimated to lower inflation rates and according to State and industry up to 30 percent higher growth figures. Social services will often be adapted with the rate of inflation. Also the wage policy depends on the rate of inflation. In Germany, a corresponding revision of the national accounts was carried out in 2005.
The following table compares the total index and the individual indexes (location index and expectations index) with inflation, unemployment and the underemployment. In the United States, there are six different unemployment (U-1 to U-6), where the U-3 as the official number is seen, and the U-6 reflects the rate of underemployment.